Harmony Shepherdess

The drought hit a turning point in Texas last weekend as ranchers made a mad dash to the sale barns, liquidating unprecedented amounts of beef cattle. Cattle industry leader Corbitt Wall, host of the FEEDER FLASH at NationalBeefWire.com gives an update on drought conditions across Texas. In his words, the effects of this drought combined with economic factors (fuel and fertilizer prices) are “unbelievable” with 3 mile line of trailers for the dropoff line at Emory Texas sale barn. The sale barn received such a surplus that they were auctioning off cattle through 5am the next morning.

This sale barn was 30 miles south of me and I was an eyewitness to these unbelievable lines. My local sale barn was packed.  It is real. 

As far as I am finding, hay bales are at minimum $85 for 4×5′ rounds (if you can find them). $100-125 per bale by fall will not be out of the question.  For reference, 2021 prices in my area were $50/bale for 5×6′ rounds.

“Blessed is the man who trusts in the Lord,
And whose hope is the Lord.

For he shall be like a tree planted by the waters,
Which spreads out its roots by the river,
And will not fear when heat comes;
But its leaf will be green,
And will not be anxious in the year of drought,
Nor will cease from yielding fruit.”

Jeremiah 17:7-8

This drought-induced cattle liquidation is going to disrupt our meat supply chain in previously unforeseen ways… which says a lot given everything it has been through in the past two years.  The cows being sold at these sale barns are ones that would, in normal circumstances, be producing calves for 4-5 more years.  Instead, they are going to feed lots.   With so many productive cows heading to slaughter and not producing calves, the US is going to face a major beef cattle deficit in 2024.  The price of beef will go down for the next 12 months as we eat through the cows that are being liquidated now, but I predict one or both of the following will take place by the end of 2024:

1. Live Cattle prices will explode.  Ranchers will be attempting to restock their ranch and that 3 mile line to sell will be replaced (at least in part), by a line to buy.  That line to buy will be shorter, however, because with the exorbitant cost of inputs, many ranchers will go out of business permanently.  
2. Foreign beef imports will drastically increase.  To cover for the deficit stateside meat packers will increase beef imports from South America.   Meatpacking giant JBS is actually a Brazilian owned company.  JBS has an Argentine slaughter facility that has a capacity of 500,000 head of beef cattle per year. They are already in the practice of  importing foreign beef carcasses.  This increased reliance on imports is going to further destroy American food infrastructure. 

And this is where I am looking straight at you right now:  If you have 3-5 acres, one of the best things you can do for both personal and national security is to go buy one of these cows.  The book: Salad Bar Beef will be your roadmap will give you step by step instructions on how to raise your own grass fed beef as an absolute beginner. Please bypass Amazon and purchase at shopshepherdess.com, it would really support my work!  

It’s exactly what I did (with no previous farming experience) and I outline the whole process of raising 1000 lb of beef as a beginner in this video: Raising 1000lb of Beef as an absolute beginner.

-the Shepherdess

Last week I brought home over 1000 pounds worth of grass fed beef. This is beef that I grew myself… with absolutely no previous experience in agriculture… Today I am bringing you all the details: from all the costs that went into growing 1000lb of beef, to a step by step process on how I did it.

When I had this crazy idea back in 2020 to raise grass fed beef, one of the first things I did was buy this book: Salad Bar Beef by Joel Salatin, which is available at ShopShepherdess.com. I’d love it if you would buy it there and support my farm. But I bought it knowing nothing about cows, or farming. And to be honest, I bought it because it had cows and dollar signs on it, whispers which are two of my primary interests right now… and sheep of course. But overall, the Lord had a bigger picture in mind by directing my steps to Salad Bar Beef because it not only gave me a complete 101 on how to raise Grassfed beef… it was also my first introduction to the concepts of regenerative agriculture, rotational grazing, and it ultimately was the book that laid the foundation for much of what you see on this channel.

The best way to get started in Grassfed beef:
For my first go at raising Grassfed beef I purchased three 7 month old steers from a local rancher. There are two HUGE reasons that I went with steers instead of a breeding cow. First I penciled out the timeline. If I was to buy and breed a cow it would be 33 months before I had beef on my plate. Buying a 7 month old steer would put meat on my plate within 18 months. Huge reason number 2 is that maintaining a breeding cow entails the expense of not only buying, but carrying the mama-cow indefinitely and potential for complications at and after birth. Any rancher will tell you that if you are going to have complications with livestock, most of them are going to happen in the birth to weaning time period. You also have the hassle of either buying or renting a bull to breed to your cow.

With all of this swirling in my head, the weaned steers became an easy choice. These steers came vaccinated, dewormed, acclimated to grazing, and ready to go. The only thing I did was deworm them with Ivermectin each of the two springs they were with me, but beyond that I just grazed them across my 23 acres for 18 months.

I bought these 3 beef Steer from my friend and local cow-calf rancher Karl Ebel. He was (and still is) a primary resource for me as a beginner in ranching and you can click on this video for more about him.

I had no livestock trailer, so he delivered the steer straight to my pasture. He charged a 10 cent per pound premium for buying the steers off pasture. This included delivery and was honestly, an exceptional favor to me as a friend.

BREED:
2 Herefords
1 black baldie (an Angus-hereford cross)

How Much land do you need to raise grass fed to finished beef? You need 3-5 acres per steer to raise and finish it on all grass. 3 acres per steer if you have fairly dense grass are moving your cows to a new paddock every day. 5 acres if you are moving your cows once a week or once every two weeks. I want to note here that running a grass-finishing operation does requires more land than a seasonally-synced breeding operation. So keep that in mind! You need more acreage for a finishing operation.

The way I grazed these steers was that I allowed them to go into every pasture and graze first. I gave the 3 steers large 3-5 acre paddocks and let them graze for 7 days. Then, I would bring my sheep and breeding cow herd through and pressured them graze the leftovers by putting them in smaller 1 acre paddocks. This ensured that my finishing steer were always eating the cream of the crop. I maintained this “finishing steers go first” program through to the very end and it worked great.

**As a sidenote, you will need more acres per animal for a grass-finishing operation than you will for strictly a breeding operation.

Costs:
I had 3 costs: cost of the animals, cost of feed overwinter, and cost of processing.

**Some are going to cite the cost of land should apply here, but I have-not done so. I worked out an arrangement with my family that would supply them with a certain amount of Grassfed beef at-cost in exchange for the use of the pasture to graze on. If you don’t have your own land, I want to encourage you to think creatively like this. Maybe someone in your family, your church, your local community has underutilized land… tell them you want to use it to grow beef, give them your plan, and give them a generous cut of the action once your harvest comes in.

**This is family property, but the land owner that I am working with was initially REALLY apprehensive about me raising beef cattle on his pasture. He agreed, but was afraid of having a bunch of wild cows running around. He was concerned they’d be unmanageable due to their size. However, as I grazed them for 18 months his mind was completely changed. He watched me handle them daily, he watched them come at my whistle like a couple of puppy dogs, and he watched as they grew fatter and fatter on grass that he would have otherwise had to pay to have hayed or mowed. When it came time to open up a box of the richest red grass fed beef, this landowner was completely won over and said that the doors are wide open for whatever I want to raise on his pasture.

So be encouraged and maybe even share this video with someone who is on the fence about leasing their land to you.

Cost of Steers:

I paid $1.83 per pound for these steers and they weighed 490lb when they arrived on my pasture. The total cost per steer was $909.51, or $2728.53 for all three.

Cost of the first overwintering the first year:
Beyond that initial investment of $2728.53, overwintering was the only time I pulled money out of my pocket to raise this beef. My first overwintering cost $525 and the second overwintering cost $168. You read that right: The first overwintering, I overdid on inputs simply for lack of experience. I didn’t understand the concept of stockpiling grass (click this video for more info), so I completely disregarded the acres of warm season stockpile as “useless” and fed the steers 7 round bales. Despite the fact that the steers were twice the size in their second winter, feed input costs were almost 1/2 of the first overwinter. Here is a breakdown:

1st overwintering for 3 yearlings:
7 round bales @ $50 each (free describe the agreement): (could have gotten away without, link to the 50c cows video)
9 bags of Cattle Cubes @ $15 each (150 lb each)
2 Bags of beef mineral mix from my local farm store

Total cost for the first overwintering: $525

2nd Overwintering for 3 full grown steers:
8 bags of cattle cubes @ $16 each (3/4 lb cubes per day from November 1-April 15th (Or 165 days))
2 bags of beef minerals.

Total cost for the second overwintering: $168

**A note on these cattle cubes: You may be thinking: “Wait, cubes for Grassfed beef is cheating!” The AGA, which is the American Grassfed Association has a list of approved supplements that can be fed to beef cow and still retain a 100% Grassfed label. The cubes were given not as a dietary baseline, but as a tool to maintain optimal rumen function while grazing winter pasture. Supplements of this nature are permitted under AGA guidelines so long as they do not pass a certain quantity. I don’t give a lot of merit to labels or regulatory standards… I urge consumer to educate themselves on where they buy from rather than relying on govt. labels. HOWEVER, if you want a complete list of AGA guidelines for Grassfed beef I have put the link to it below. https://www.americangrassfed.org/standards/AGA_Grassfed_Standards_Sept_2010-Final.pdf

Processing cost for 3 steers:
Processing fee for 3 steers at a STATE inspected facility: $1,695 or $565 per steer.
Bumper pull trailer rental: $75
Gas for Hauling: $90
Paying my brother to do all of the driving for the day: $200

$2059.76

Total cost: $5481.29 or $5.48 per pound of Grassfed beef.

I think the bottom is that you can do this. If you have a way to get ahold of the land… YOU SHOULD DO THIS.

I can’t explain the feeling of looking at 27 boxes of the highest quality food that can be produced and knowing that, by God’s grace, I produces it on 23 acres that was laying largely dormant. I had a flashback to when I stood right here and said “If I can take a resource that I have and convert it into a desirable finished product, that can be a very profitable situation.” And it’s really overwhelming to be here two years later. These cows were a major tool in a bigger plan than I could have come up with for myself and to be here looking back is humbling.

I’d love it if you would leave e a comment below if you’ve been following since the beginning. I want to thank you personally for it. If you haven’t been following since the beginning my whole entire farming history is documented here on YouTube, so just start from the beginning for the story.

Despite the term “sovereign nation” the United States, and nearly every other nation on the globe, has become a puppet on the strings of a global economy. The true power belongs to the producers, the exporters, and their allies. Today we are going to evaluate Russia’s foothold in the global food supply chain, what it will mean for Americans, and how we can insulate ourselves from the impending shock wave.

Russia and it’s close partners are responsible for 51.2% of global rice production, 40.6% of global wheat production, and 25.7% of global corn production. In addition to these figures, Russia is the largest global exporter of both fuel and fertilizer, two elements essential to global industrial food production.

When I cite “Russia’s close partners” I am referring the Belarus, China, and India. We cannot evaluate Russia’s position in the global food supply chain without considering the extremely close ties between these 4 countries. Though small, Belarus is joined to Russia in the “Union State” and together they supply 40% of Potash fertilizer supply worldwide. While there is no formal alliance between China and Russia, these two countries “currently enjoy the best relations they have had since the late 1950s… they have an informal agreement to coordinate diplomatic and economic moves, and build up an alliance against the United States.” (wikipedia). As for India, it cites a position of neutrality between Russia and the West, however India draws heavily on Russia for it’s arms and fuel supply, and just 3 days ago hosted the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov .

(insert aljazeer clip)

Rice, wheat, and corn are the three primary global food crops. Russia, India, and China produce 40.6% of the global wheat supply. In fact, when Russia began it’s bombardment of the Ukraine, the price of wheat hit historic highs and, for a short time, a wheat based ETF (Teacrium) ran out of shares to sell. (Business Insider) According to an article by Business Insider: “Combined, Russia and Ukraine are responsible for more than 20% of the world’s wheat production.” China and India produce an additional 31%, meaning that half of the world supply of wheat is hanging in the balance as war rages in the Ukraine.

China and India are responsible for 50% of global rice supply. While Russia does not produce significant amounts of rice within it’s own borders, it’s relations with India and China make Russian access to the commodity far more secure than that of the Western world.

When it comes to Corn, China produces 22% of global supply. While a minimal amount of corn is harvested within Russian borders, this is where we pivot to Russia’s control of fertilizer supply.

Crops (whether wheat, corn, or rice) will not grow without a sufficient amount of the fertilizers nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (otherwise known as potash). According to fastcompany.com: “Russia’s biggest exports are oil and gas. But the country is also the largest global exporter of fertilizer” The Union State (which I previously mentioned is Russia and Belarus) is the worlds largest producer-exporter of potash. In fact, their production accounts for 40% of global supply.

According to an article on Bloomberg.com: “Replacing [the Potash supplied by Russia and Belarus] would take nearly half a decade at the very best, and in some cases prove nearly impossible as Russia is a large source of mineral deposits found in few other global locations,” Maxwell said.”

While I advocate for organic over chemical fertilizer, our reliance on chemical nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium is severe. Completely removing this chemical fertilization from our food system would trigger a worldwide famine.

Touching fertilizers very briefly: Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Potassium are essential to producing the crops we rely on for food. Chemical version of these elements artificially stimulate natural processes, producing plant growth while depleting the soil of minerals and organic matter. Using chemical fertilizer is like spending money on a credit card. You can get a lot with it, but eventually have to pay for it. Our soil is going deeper into debt every year. Like paying off a debt, the process of restoring true soil health will take years, if not decades.

The bottom line here is that chemical inputs remain a necessary evil to maintain status quo in the global food supply chain.

But to transition into a third global foothold, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Russia exports an equivalent of 53 million gallons per year. The US falls second at roughly 40 million gallons per year. In modern agriculture, fuel is as essential to farming as fertilizer. Without it the machinery that drives industrial agriculture (tractors, combines, etc) become obsolete. Additionally, “Russia accounts for about 40 percent of the European Unions entire gas consumption.” (aljazeera). Unlike the US, many of these EU countries do not have the capacity to replace Russian fuel supply with their own natural gas.

In an article from CNBC German Finance Minister Christian Lindner stated:

“While some nations are supportive of banning Russian energy, other EU countries argue that they are too dependent on Russian energy and they would hurt their own economies more than Russia’s. We have to put more pressure on Putin and we have to isolate Russia — we have to cut all economic relationships to Russia, but at the moment it is not possible to cut the gas supplies,”

What does international volatility mean for the American consumer? Simply: food prices will continue to go up. If the US or the EU takes any significant measures against Russia (which, given the aforementioned, would be more risky than either are willing to do), we could see unbelievable food inflation over the next two years. (cite corn and wheat elevation in recent weeks) Speaking from a personal perspective I do not believe a rate of 20-30% would be out of the question.

But what are our actionable steps? What are the things you and I can do to insulate ourselves from this impending shockwave? Food is going to become very expensive for Americans, and severely limited in many developing nations. Before Russia’s action in the Ukraine, there were several global and systemic factors pushing us toward this situation… and now we are facing a potential fast-track.

As individuals, we need to facilitate an inversion. Today we have a shrinking number of farmers producing food on a massive scale. We need a massive amount of farmers producing food on a small scale. Organic alternatives to chemical fertilizer (💩) work famously on a grass based protein production model. In other words, cow, sheep, goat, and chicken manure are phenomenal organic sources of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. On a rotational grazing system these animals can rapidly restore soil fertility while providing cheeseburgers, lamb chops, and chicken nuggets for the small farmer and his customers.

The comment invariably comes through “Well, that kind of agriculture can’t feed the world!” And my answer is: We aren’t responsible for feeding the world. We are responsible for feeding ourselves, our families and our neighbors. If everyone took that responsibility seriously, we may not need to worry about how to feed the world, it may well feed itself.

If you have no idea what I am talking about, I want to invite you to #1 watch the other 100 videos on my channel that discuss regenerative meat production and #2 buy this book at shopshepherdess.com, it will show you how to take a piece of land produce food using nothing but the grass growing on it.

-the Shepherdess

Further reads and citations:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90729827/russia-is-a-major-fertilizer-exporter-heres-how-farmers-can-use-less-of-it

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-calls-on-domestic-fertilizer-producers-to-halt-exports

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/17/infographic-how-much-of-your-countrys-gas-comes-from-russia-interactive

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/eus-new-russia-sanctions-steel-luxury-goods-jet-fuel-and-more.html

https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/its-costing-more-to-farm-usda-study-shows

https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6301747266001#sp=show-clips

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/wheat-etf-runs-out-of-shares-price-spike-weat-commodity-2022-3

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/minerals-metals-facts/potash-facts/20521

https://www.dalinternationalreview.com/2021/03/countries-that-love-indonesia.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_relations

https://www.worldometers.info/gas/china-natural-gas/