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I was having a conversation with someone who is setting up his 5-acre homestead. He posed a question to me along the lines of: “What will cause the next round of food shortages? What kind of apocalyptic predictions are motivating you to farm?”
A lot of scenarios went through my head at that moment: world war, currency collapse, political upheaval, extreme drought, grid outages, cyberattacks, and more.
But I paused for a couple of seconds before responding… because despite the fact that I do believe the future will hold worse things than we have ever seen; I am not prepping based on what I think I’ll see, I am prepping based on what I have already seen.
In this video, I am going to cover 4 Black Swan events from the past 100 years and how I am using them to try to make the right decisions for whatever the future holds.
Sidenote: I believe what I have just said with respect to “the worst is yet to come” without fear because I trust in the Lord, not my farm, as my ultimate source of security. I can say what I just said without being a fear monger because the Lord invites you to trust in Him as your ultimate source of security as well.
So back to the conversation I was having with this guy: Despite all the apocalyptic scenarios swirling in my head, I said: “I am not prepping based on what I think I’ll see, I am prepping based on what I’ve already seen.”
I shared with him that during 2020 and all of the insanity that I saw, I kept having this phrase run through my head: “this is a drill, this is a drill, this is a drill”
I had this intuition that Covid was not going to be a long-term disruption, but rather the opportunity to see how we would perform if a long-term disruption knocked at our door.
And how did we perform? Did our supply chains hold out? Did we, as individuals, have the food reserves to make it past that 1-2 months? Did we have a local farm to buy from should those supply chain disruptions have lasted for years instead of weeks?
For me personally, in 2020, the answer to a majority of these questions was: no. Which is why I started raising some of my own food and dedicated myself to creating free resources for those who would come behind me in the effort. If you click the first link in the description of this video, I’ll send you my two most popular beginner food growing guides for free.
But Covid was just the first of 4 Black Swan-style Events we discussed:
#2: The second was drought-induced famine. We all remember the dust bowl during the great depression of the 1930s. That time period was a succession of 3 major droughts, which resulted in a 32% decrease in wheat production nationwide, forcing many farmers off the land. [https://news.uchicago.edu/story/dust-bowl-would-devastate-todays-crops-study-finds]
More recently, similar droughts have swept the southwestern United States costing crop farmers Billions of dollars in revenue and accelerating the decline of US beef industry.
When the mega-drought hit my farm in Northeast Texas back in 2022, I witnessed mile-long lines of local ranchers lining up to liquidate their cattle. Shortly after this, I found out that, historically, ranchers would keep up to 18 months of hay reserves for their herds as a general practice, not a pre-apocalyptic practice.
Which is an action step I am implementing here in a year of abundance from a rainfall perspective: going old school and putting back 18 months of hay for my flock.
#3: The third event we discussed was World War. It has been nearly 80 years since the end of WW2. Previous to WW2, the United States was involved in 3 major wars within the same span of time: the Civil War, ending in 1861; WW1, ending in 1914; and WW2 ending in 1945.
The present 80-year span of relative peace within our borders is an anomaly and a major world war in the near future cannot be ruled out.
It was through the Victory Garden movement during WW2 that Americans used their backyards to produce 48% of their own food supply.
The victory garden movement was a major contributor to national security during wartime as much of the commercial food supply was being exported to troops and allies on the front lines.
We can learn from this and engineer our backyards to produce in a similar fashion.
#4: Family emergencies. While this is more general than historic, I recently heard a story of a homestead mom who had been gardening and preserving food for something bad she expected would happen in the world. Then, her husband was injured and not able to generate an income for almost a whole year. It was her food preps that provided groceries during a time when they were without a primary income.
The story was an amazing reminder to me as a lady that you never know what you are prepping for. Using seasons of abundance to put back canned goods, extra flour, or a few extra pounds of meat in the freezer may pay off in ways you would not have expected.
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Over the past 4 years, I have realized alongside many of you that we are living in a state of NOT NORMAL.
Relying on a farming population of 2% to feed an entire nation is not normal. Having 80% of our meat supply controlled by 4 companies is not normal. Factory Farming practices that cause a loss of soil at a rate 10x that of replenishment is not normal. Having a cropping system that relies on the use of 1 billion pounds of cancer-causing pesticide is not normal. Having 300-MILLION people tied to 1 power grid is not normal.
A return to normal may be labeled as prepping or apocalyptic… raising a family pig, milking your cow, gardening, canning, and having enough food in the pantry to last 3-5 months: THESE WERE a way of life 60-70 years ago.
PERSONAL: I am personally preparing for massive, long-term breakdown of critical supply chains. I cannot tell you what will trigger it or when it will be. Something in me hopes that it will not be for another 10-25 years because realistically, we need that much time to establish the skills and resources necessary to brave that kind of a collapse.
If I have children, it will likely be them who will face on a large scale what I am seeing today on a small scale. I want to hand them practical tools and skillsets to face that uncertainty.
You would be considered foolish if you did not do these things. And today there is a strange inversion where some consider you paranoid or crazy if you do put back food preps.
So if anyone asks why you are so worried about the end of the world, tell them you aren’t afraid, you are just going back to normal.
Trampes says
I have worked in Walmart warehouse for over 5 year I have seen people being manipulated from our own government. We live in a great country that grows massive amount of food I believe there is no shortage but shortage of good people in office so when everyone votes again vote for what right for America
Jonathan Bellows says
Wow
That’s a lot to unpack
Two questions why can’t you find lamb meat in Temple TX and why do you wear the orange hat “ no hate “
I’m in all with all you are doing
May god keep you and richly bless you!
Harmony Shepherdess says
Hi Jonathan,
Check eatwild.com for lamb near you. You will likely have to buy whole or half lamb directly from a farmer, but it’s worth it!
The orange hat happened by accident and stuck. It was the only hat in my closet when I started farming :).
Thompson, John says
your programs are very informative, and helpful, thank you for making these,
Harmony Shepherdess says
glad you enjoy! Thank you!
Chris Anthony Tassin says
Your article is in sync with the book of Revelation. we are entering perilous times.
stay strong in faith
Marilou Bishop says
Grace, well said! Thanks for your reporting on Amos Miller and discussing food freedom and storage with such a calm way about you. Blessings, Marilou
Tim says
I love the lord. Please let Him save us all